Trade analysis and tips for the British pound

The test of 1.3189 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

Yesterday the pound fell along with other currencies in reaction to a strong block of US data that boosted demand for the dollar. Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 197,000, confirming the labor market remains resilient rather than weakening under high-rate pressure, as some had feared. The September ISM manufacturing report followed, keeping the manufacturing index at 54.5% and extending the sector's expansion to nine consecutive months, supported by increases in new orders and employment.

Today the UK macro calendar is empty, which for the pound means a rare chance for a technical recovery without reference to domestic fundamentals. Without internal data, traders lack reasons for new directional bets on GBP/USD, and the pair tends to trade on technical structure rather than macro. In such conditions, the probability of an upside correction rises, especially since markets often use data lulls to take profits and partially close positions accumulated earlier. In my view, market participants will prefer a wait-and-see stance and avoid aggressive pound selling at least until the key US releases, which can affect the pair far more than today's UK quiet.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 below.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry area around 1.3223 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3245 (thicker green line). Around 1.3245, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip countermove). Expect pound strength only after good data. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning its rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3204 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves toward 1.3223 and 1.3245.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3204 level is breached (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline. The sellers' key target will be 1.3181, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip countermove). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning its decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3223 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would cap upside and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.3204 and 1.3181.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders,, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.